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L A R G E C A P V A L U EC O M M E N T A R Y In the 3rd quarter, our Large Cap Value portfolio had a preliminary return of 7.80% (net of fees: 7.71%) comparedto 6.51% for the Russel 1000 Value Index, outperforming the benchmark by 1.29%. Below you wil find theportfolio’s worst and best performing stocks in the quarter.
**Contribution calculation methodology is available upon request Please pass the Haldol! Schizophrenic Market Alive and WellThe 3rd quarter of 2012 certainly continued the theme of higher volatility. First, for those that haven’t noticed, theRussel 1000 Value Index produced a return of 11% in the first quarter of 2012, which was fol owed up with a2.5% decline in Q2 and then a 6.5% increase in Q3. The changes intra-quarter have confounded many managersincluding us. Correlations between assets (stocks, commodities, currencies) have remained high and the risk-on/risk-off attitude has persisted.
The big headwinds remain European economic weakness and the US Election/Fiscal Cliff. Management teamsare having a difficult time deciding whether to spend money now on new equipment, plants, employees, etc. orwaiting until after the election when they feel there wil be more certainty. As we know, times are never certain. Itis when times appear certain that we should be the most concerned, because there usually is very little margin ofsafety in stock prices.
We are not macro investors, but as we have stated in the past we pay very close attention to global developmentsrealizing that there is a trickledown effect. Earnings in the second quarter of this year proved not to be as bad asmany suspected. We own numerous stocks that advanced significantly because they were able to “beat lowexpectations”. We really enjoy one-foot hurdles, but as the third quarter ends, we are much more guarded sinceprices have risen and expectations appear to be at high levels.
We believe markets wil remain volatile and that this is an overall destabilizing effect. It has forced many retailinvestors out of the market and creates chal enges for institutional investors who are allocating capital acrossvarious asset classes. A week has not gone by when cash has not moved out of “equities” and into “fixed income”.
This helps build a strong platform for the eventual advance of common stocks, but in the near-term, there wil beforced sel ers (long only domestic equity managers) in the market.
185 Oakland Avenue, Suite 100, Birmingham, MI 48009 | P 248 593 1500 | F 248 203 1225 | T 877 426 0806
L A R G EC A P V A L U EC O M M E N T A R Y During the quarter, the portfolio benefited relatively from our stock selection in Industrials, [+0.61%], Energy[+0.44%], and Financials [+0.29%]. We also benefited from our underweight in Utilities [+0.48%]. Our stockselection hurt overall performance in Telecom [-0.31%] and Health Care [-0.20%].
Investor time frames remain incredibly short. Very few are wil ing to think in terms of 3 to 5 year holding periods.
We remain focused on what we know, which is business valuation. We continue to focus on our investment thesesand closely track the data points that we are looking for on a quarterly and annual basis. We continue to maintaina portfolio with an attractive valuation, high free cash flow, and high returns on capital all while focusing on strongbalance sheets.
The Russel 1000 Value Index is currently priced at over 14x forward earnings with growth expectations that areoptimistic. Long-term growth expectations of 11%+ are prevalent in many sectors. Combining those growthassumptions with high valuations and high margins provides very little margin of safety. Our portfolio is morecompel ing from a valuation perspective. Our portfolio is currently priced at just over 11x forward four quarterearnings estimates; 8.5x Enterprise Value to EBITDA; and, has a long term debt to capitalization of 30%. Inaddition, many of our holdings have net cash on their balance sheet providing both future flexibility and downsideprotection.
The portfolio is overweight in Health Care, Energy, and Information Technology. We currently have no exposure inUtilities and we are underweight in Consumer Discretion, Consumer Staples, and Materials.
Current StrategyIt has become increasingly hard to find new ideas as the markets have advanced. Investors continue to pay a veryhigh price for yield and what they believe to be safe (Consumer Staples, Utilities). We wil remain focused ontaking advantage of the volatility in the equity market.
The aggregate characteristics of our portfolio are compel ing, so now we need to exercise patience whilemaintaining a close eye on the underlying fundamentals of each company. It wil take time to see if we are right inour investment theses and we look forward to seeing the results. We would expect our turnover to decline in themonths ahead.
We thank you for your support and we truly appreciate the opportunity to serve you.
Sector characteristics and security performance reflect information for a representative account from the Large Cap Value composite. Information may varyfor other actual accounts. The information provided should not be considered a specific recommendation to purchase or sel any securities and is subject tochange. The gross composite performance figures shown are based on time-weighted rates of return less transaction costs. The net composite performancefigures shown reflect gross performance less the investment management fees. Al returns reflect the reinvestment of investment income (dividends and/orinterest) and capital gains. The holdings identified do not represent al securities purchased or sold for advisory clients and it should not be assumed thatrecommendations made in the future wil be profitable or wil equal the performance of the securities in this commentary. A complete list of holdings for theprevious 12-month period is available upon request. The Russel 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S.
equity universe. Estimates and certain information contained in this commentary are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered asinvestment advice. Index performance information was furnished by sources deemed reliable and is believed to be accurate but not guaranteed and theinformation is subject to correction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
185 Oakland Avenue, Suite 100, Birmingham, MI 48009 | P 248 593 1500 | F 248 203 1225 | T 877 426 0806

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