Microsoft powerpoint - recent developments in mortality 13-06-07.ppt
Recent developments in mortality We are seeing unprecedented change
For men aged 65-74 in England & Wales
the reduction in mortality rates over the
past 15 years was similar to that
achieved over the previous 150 years We are seeing unprecedented change reduction in mortality rates for England & Wales aged (smoothed) We are seeing unprecedented change
In the UK actuaries’ estimates of male
probably changed more in the past 10 years than in the previous 100 years We are seeing unprecedented change Projected expectancy pensioners published actuarial tables and projections
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Partly due to the emergence of the “cohort effect”
In the UK men and women born in the period 1925-45 have
experienced more rapid reductions in mortality rates than
generations born either before, or after, this period
But not entirely… accelerated for all birth reduction in mortality rates for England & year of birth (smoothed) Circulatory disease mortality dominates trends Share of current improvements for 1930-34 birth cohort, males in the population of England & Wales, by cause of death Using the p-spline model with cause-of-death data
Mortality data by cause of death for England & Wales is generally
Causes need to be sub-divided into relatively broad categories
It is important to allow for the impact of changes in cause
A model has been developed with James Kirkby
Model needs to allow for step-changes in cause classification smoothed and adjusted log mortality rates for England & Wales for all causes other circulatory and cancer by Model fitted to circulatory causes mortality rate decline by age and calendar using a p- model fitted e to mortality rates for England & Wales for all circulatory Accelerating improvements for circulatory disease reduction in circulatory mortality rates for England & year of birth (smoothed) The National Service Framework (NSF) for Heart Disease
aim to reduce the prevalence of risk treatment for all factors in the people with treatment for all cardiovascular people at significant risk of developing
Sets standards for treatment of heart cardiovascular Heart Disease NSF progress report for 2006 28% (2000) 24% (2004) 2,900 (2000) 9,700 (2005)
with statins p.a. Number of patients waiting over
5,663 (Apr Zero (Mar 2005) 38% (2000) 83% (Apr 2005
30 mins of arrival at hospitalConsultant cardiologists
467 (1999) 725 (Sept 2005) Cigarette smoking trends reductions in the 70s & 80s Prevalence 40% of cigarette Stabilisation during the falls since adults in Britain, source: ONS Accelerating improvements for circulatory disease Stabilisation during the reduction in circulatory mortality rates for Point to note: there England & was no decline in the pace of improvement year of birth during a period of (smoothed) stable smoking prevalence Further impetus for reductions in cigarette smoking
In England the ban on smoking in enclosed public places will
There is evidence that media campaigns are becoming more
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Recent developments in mortality
We are seeing unprecedented change
We are seeing unprecedented change
We are seeing unprecedented change
We are seeing unprecedented change
Partly due to the emergence of the “cohort effect”
But not entirely…
Circulatory disease mortality dominates trends
Using the p-spline model with cause-of-death data
Model needs to allow for step-changes in cause classification
Model fitted to circulatory causes
Accelerating improvements for circulatory disease
The National Service Framework (NSF) for Heart Disease
Heart Disease NSF progress report for 2006
Cigarette smoking trends
Accelerating improvements for circulatory disease
Further impetus for reductions in cigarette smoking