Phs 398 (rev. 9/04), biographical sketch format page

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH
Provide the following information for the key personnel and other significant contributors. Follow this format for each person. DO NOT EXCEED FOUR PAGES.
EDUCATION/TRAINING (Begin with baccalaureate or other initial professional education, such University of Western Ontario, London ON A. Positions and Honors.

Positions and Employment
1989-1991
Head, Clinical Trials & Epidemiology, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto ON Professor, Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton ON 2002-present Senior Scientist, CHES, SickKids Research Institute, Toronto ON
2002-present Professor, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto ON

Honors
1977-1979
Best Paper Award from the Society for Medical Decision Making, co-author Research Award for Methodology Excellence, ISPOR, primary author Research Award for Methodology Excellence, ISPOR, co-author Research Award for Methodology Excellence, ISPOR, co- author B. Selected peer-reviewed publications (in chronological order).
(Publications selected from 237 peer-reviewed publications) Willan A, Watts D. Meaningful multicollinearity measures. Technometrics 1978; 20:407-412.
Willan A. Relative efficiency in survival analysis. J Chron Dis 1983; 36:183-192.
Pater J, Willan A. Clinical trials as diagnostic tests. Control Clin Trials 1984; 5:107-113.
Pater J, Willan A. Methodologic issues in trials of antiemetics. J Clin Oncol 1984; 2:484-487.
Willan A, Pater J. Hypothesis testing and sample size for bivariate binomial response in the comparison
of two groups. J Chron Dis 1985; 38:603-608.
Willan A, Pater J. Carryover and the two-period crossover clinical trial. Biometrics 1986; 42:593-599.
Willan A, Pater J. Using baseline measurements in the two period crossover clinical trial. Control Clin
Trials 1986; 7:282-289.
Burnett R, Willan A. Linear rank tests for randomized block designs. Communications in Statistics A
1988; 17:2455-2470.
Willan A. Using the maximum test statistic in the two period crossover clinical trial. Biometrics 1988;
44:211-218.
Willan A, MacKenzie T. The severity of illness and laboratory testing. Can J Public Health 1988;
79:435-439.
Willan A, Ross W, MacKenzie T. A comparison of in-patient classification systems: A problem on non-
nested regressions. Stat Med 1992; 11:1321-1331.
Willan A. Power function arguments in support of an alternative approach for analyzing management
trials. Control Clin Trials 1994; 15:211-219.
Willan A, Cruess AF, Ballantyne M. Argon green vs krypton red laser photocoagulation of extrafoveal
choroidal Neovascular Lesions: Three-year results in age-related macular generation. Can J Ophthalmol
1996; 31:11-17.
Willan A, O'Brien BJ. Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios: An application of Fieller's
Theorem. Health Economics 1996; 5:297-305. Addendum 1999; 8(4).
Cook RJ, Willan A. Design considerations in crossover trials with a single interim analysis and serial
patient entry. Biometrics 1996; 52:732-739.
Willan A, O'Brien BJ, Cook DJ. Benefit-risk ratios in the assessment of the clinical evidence of a new
therapy. Control Clin Trials 1997; 18:121-130.
Willan AR, O’Brien BJ. Sample size and power issues in estimating incremental cost-effectiveness
ratios from clinical trials data. Health Economics 1999; 8:203-211.
Willan AR, Lin DY. Incremental net benefit in randomized clinical trials. Stat Med. 2001; 20:1563-1574.
PA
Willan AR, Analysis, sample size and power for estimating incremental net health benefit from clinical
trial data. Control Clin Trials. 2001; 22:228-237.
Willan AR, O'Brien BJ. Cost prediction models for the comparison of two groups. Health Economics
2001; 10:363-366.
Willan AR, O’Brien BJ, Leyva RA. Cost-effectiveness analysis when the WTA is greater than the WTP.
Stat Med 2001; 20:3251-3259.
Willan AR. On the probability of cost-effectiveness using data from randomized clinical trials. BMC
Med Res Meth 2001;1:8. ( www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2288/1/8/ )
Hoch JS, Briggs AH, Willan AR. Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue:
a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis. Health Economics
2002; 11:415-430.
Willan AR, Lin DY, Cook RJ, Chen E. Using inverse-weighing in cost-effectiveness analysis with
censored data. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 2002; 11:539-551.
Willan AR, Chen E, Cook RJ, Lin DY. Incremental net benefit in randomized clinical trials with
qualify-adjusted survival. Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22:353-362.
Willan AR. Incremental net benefit in the analysis of economic data from clinical trials with application
to the CADET-Hp Trial. European Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2004; 16:543-549.
Willan AR, Briggs AH, Hoch JS. Regression methods for covariate adjustment and subgroup analysis
for non-censored cost-effectiveness data. Health Economics 2004; 13:461-475.
Willan AR, Lin DY, Manca A. Regression methods for cost-effectiveness analysis with censored data.
Statistics in Medicine 2005; 24:131-145.
Willan AR, Pinto EM, O’Brien BJ, Kaul P, Goeree R, Lynd L, Armstrong PW. Country specific cost
comparisons from multinational clinical trials using empirical Bayesian shrinkage estimation: the
Canadian ASSENT-3 economic analysis. Health Economics 2005; 14:327-328.
Willan AR, Pinto EM. The expected value of information and optimal clinical trial design. Statistics in
Medicine 2005; 24:1791-1806.
Pinto EM, Willan AR, O’Brien BJ. Cost-effectiveness analysis for multinational clinical trials. Statistics
in Medicine 2005; 24:1965-1982.
Willan AR, Goeree, R, Pinto EM, McBurney C, Blackhouse G. Economic evaluation of rivastigmine in
patients with parkinson’s disease dementia. Pharmacoeconomics 2006; 24: 93-106.
Willan AR. Statistical analysis of cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials. Expert Rev.
Phamacoeconomics Outcomes Res. 2006; 6: 337-346.
Manca A, Willan AR. Lost in translation”: accounting for between country differences in the analysis of
multinational cost effectiveness data. Pharmacoeconomics 2006; 24: 1101-1119.
Eckermann S, Willan AR. Expected value of information and decision making in HTA. Health
Economics 2007; 16: 195-209.
Pullenayegum EM, Willan AR. Semi-parametric regression models for cost-effectiveness analysis:
improving the efficiency of estimation from censored data. Statistics in Medicine 2007; 26:3274-3299.
Willan AR. Clinical decision making and the expected value of information. Clinical Trials 2007; 4(2):.
Hossain A, Willan AR. Approximate MLEs of the parameters of location-scale models under type II
censoring. Statistics 2007; 41(5): 385-394.
Eckermann S, Willan AR. Time and EVSI wait for no patient. Value in Health 2008; 11: 522-526.
Willan AR, Kowgier ME. Cost-effectiveness Analysis of a Multinational RCT with a Binary Measure of
Effectiveness and an Interacting Covariate. Health Economics 2008; 17:777-791.
Eckermann S, Willan AR. The option value of delay in health technology assessment. Medical Decision
Making 2008; 28:300-305.
Eckermann S, Briggs A, Willan AR. Health technology assessment in the cost-disutility plane. Medical
Decision Making 2008; 28:172-181
Willan AR, Kowgier ME. Determining optimal sample sizes for multi-stage randomized clinical trials
using value of information methods. Clinical Trials 2008; 5: 289-300.
Willan AR. Optimal sample size determinations from an industry perspective based on the expected
value of information. Clinical Trials 2008; 5:587-594.
Murphy KE, Hannah ME, Willan AR et al. Multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids for preterm
birth study (MACS): a randomised controlled trial. Lancet 2008; 372:2143-2151. .
Eckermann S, Willan AR. Globally optimal trial design for local decision making. Health Economics
2009; 18:203-216.
Schuh S, Willan AR, Stephens D, Dick PT, Coates A. Can Montelukast Shorten Prednisolone Therapy in
Children with Mild to Moderate Acute Asthma? A Randomized Controlled Trial. Journal of Pediatrics
2009; 155:795-800.
Eckermann S, Coory M, Willan AR. Indirect comparison: relative risk fallacies and odds solution.
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 2009; 62:1031-1036.
Willan AR, Eckermann S. Optimal clinical trial design using value of information methods with
imperfect implementation. Health Economics 2010 19:549-561.
Hossain A, Beyene J, Willan AR, Hu P. Approximate Likelihood ratio test for detecting differential
expression in microarray data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 2009; 53(10): 3685-3695.
Boutis K, Willan AR, Babyn P, Goeree R, Howard A. A Randomized Controlled Trial of Cast Versus
Splint In Children with Acceptably Angulated Wrist Fractures. Canadian Medical Association Journal
2010; 182(14):1507-1512.
Eckermann S, Coory M, Willan AR. Consistently estimating risk difference when translating evidence to
jurisdiction of interest. PharmacoEconomics. 2011; 29(2):87-96.
Eckermann S, Karnon J, Willan AR. The value of Value of Information: best informing research design
and prioritization using current methods. Pharmacoeconomics 2010; 28:699-709.
Willan AR. Sample size determination for cost-effectiveness trials. PharmacoEconomics 2011; 29(11):
933-949.
Eckermann S, Willan AR. Presenting and summarizing cost and effect evidence to best inform inference
and societal decision making when comparing multiple strategies. PharmacoEconomics 2011; 29(7):563-
577.
Pullenayegum EM, Willan AR. Marginal models for censored longitudinal cost data: appropriate
working variance matrices in inverse-probability-weighted GEEs can improve precision. International
Journal of Biostatistics 2011; 7(1), Article 14.
Willan AR, Eckermann S. Value of information and pricing new health interventions. PharmaEconomics
2012; 30(6): 447-459.
Willan AR, Eckermann S. Accounting for between-study variation in value of information methodology.
Health Economics 2012; 21(10):1183–1195.
Willan AR, Boutis K, Goeree R. Value of Information methods for planning and analyzing clinical
studies optimize decision making and research planning. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 2012; 65(8):
870-876.
Hossain A, Willan AR, Beyene J. An improved method on Wilcoxon rank sum test for gene selection
from microarray experiments. Communications in Statistics 2013; 42(7):1563-1577.
Eckermann S, Willan AR. Optimal global VOI trials: better aligning manufacturer and decision maker
interests and enabling feasible risk sharing. PharmacoEconomics 2013; 31(5):393-401.
Hossain A, Willan AR, Beyene J. A flexible nonparametric approach to find candidate genes associated
to disease in microarray experiments. Journal of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology 2013;
11(2):1250021 (19 pages).
Chen MH, Willan AR. Determining optimal sample sizes for multistage adaptive randomized clinical
trials from an industry perspective using value of information methods. Clinical Trials 2013; 10(1):54–
62.
Barrett JFR, Hannah ME, Hutton EK, Willan AR et al. A randomized trial of planned cesarean or
vaginal delivery for twin pregnancy. NEJM 2013; 369(14):1295-1305.
Asztalos EV, Murphy KE, Willan AR et al. Multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids for preterm
birth study outcomes in children at 5 years of age (MACS-5). JAMA Pediatr.
doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2013.2764. Published online October 14, 2013.
Chan KKW, Willan AR, Gupta M, Pullenayegum E. Underestimation of uncertainties in health utilities
derived from mapping algorithms involving health related quality of life measures: Statistical
explanations and potential remedies. Medical Decision Making (accepted for publication).
Chen MH, Willan AR. Value of information methods for assessing a new diagnostic test. Statistics in
Medicine (accepted for publication).

C. Research Support
Ongoing Research Support

1.
Canadian Institutes of Health Research, The Twin Birth Study. Barrett J (Principal Investigator), Hannah
M, Willan A, Ross S, Hutton E, et al., $8,608,045, 2003-2014.
National Science and Engineering Council, Expected Value of Information and Optimal Trial Design.
Willan AR (Principal Investigator) $70,000, 2008-2013.
Canadian Institutes of Health Research, The Bedside Paediatric Early Warning System: a cluster
randomized trial of mortality and processes of care. Parshuram C (Principal Investigator), Willan AR, et
al. $3,959,716, 2010-2014.
Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Sustainability of a multidimensional knowledge translation
intervention to improve paediatric pain practices and outcomes. Bonnie Stevens (Principal Investigator),
Willan AR, et al. $998,061, 2011-2014.
Bill and Belinda Gates Foundation, Parathyroid-vitamin D axis dysregulation in early-onset infant stunting
in resource-poor settings. Dan Roth (Principal Investigator), Willan AR, et al. $1,999,993, 2012-2016.
Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Impact of Emergency Department Probiotic Treatment of
Pediatric Gastroenteritis: Randomized Controlled Trial. Stephen Freedman (Principal Investigator),
Willan AR, et al. $2,231,300, 2013-2018.

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