Microsoft word - ivanescu laura cristina_rezumat eng.doc

ROMANIAN ACADEMY
THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH
“COSTIN C. KIRIŢESCU”
SUMMARY OF THE PhD THESIS
The Relation between
the Economic Integration
and the Monetary Integration

PhD COORDINATOR:
LUCIAN-LIVIU ALBU, PhD
Corresponding member of the ROMANIAN ACADEMY
PhD CANDIDATE:
LAURA CRISTINA IVĂNESCU
Bucharest
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 1. THEORIES OF THE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND OF
THE MONETARY INTEGRATION
1.2.1. The classical theory of the customs union 1.2.2. The modern theory of the customs unions 1.3. The Economic and Monetary Unions’ Theory 1.3.1. The conflict between the economists’ approach and the monetarists’ approach 1.4.1. The Classical Optimum Currency Areas Theory 1.4.2. Critics to the Optimum Currency Areas Theory 1.4.3. Rethinking the Optimum Currency Areas Theory 1.5. From Economic Integration to Monetary Integration in Europe: an analysis of the Economic and Monetary Union from a the perspective of Theory of Optimum Currency Areas CHAPTER 2. CONVERGENCE ISSUES WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION. DIFFICULTIES FOR THE EURO CURRENCY CANDIDATES. 2.2. Theorization of the convergence
.2.2.1. The neoclassical growth model and the challenges of the inte 49 2.3. The analysis of the convergence within the EU .2.3.1. The analysis of the real convergence process in 58 2.4. The relation between the real and the nominal convergence
. 2.4.1. Implications of the nominal criteria on the economic 72 . 2.4.2. Implications of the real convergence on the nominal conve 74 2.5. The analysis of the strategies of partcipation at the Exchange Rate
Mecansim II
CHAPTER 3. THE FUNCTIONING OF THE ASYMETRIES REDUCTION MECANISMS WITHIN THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION 3.2. The analysis of the adjustment mechanisms offered by the market within a monetary union . 3.2.1. The importance of the competiiveness c .3.2.2. The functioning of the interest rate c 3.3. The functioning of the political framework: from theory to practice . 3.3.1. The adjustment through the fiscal policy and the common m . policy. Specific feature and interdepen .3.3.2. The analysis of the deficit and the public debt development in CHAPTER 4. THE ANALYSIS OF THE CHALLENGES TO ROMANIA’S
JOINING THE EURO ZONE
4.2. The analysis of the status and challenges for the nominal
convergence
. 4.2.1. Meeting the inflation criterion and the new challenges for the m 4.3. The analysis of the real convergenge uzing the productivity indicator . 4.3.1. The analysis of convergence within the new member states that .4.3.2. Testing the importance for the achievement of the real converg CHAPTER 5. THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLES SYNCHRONIZATION OF ROMANIA AND THE EURO ZONE. THE ESTIMATION OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THE DETERMINING FACTORS 5.2. The analysis of the development of the determining factors of the business cycle synchronization . 5.2.6. The analysis of the similarity gredree of the monetary p .5.2.7. The analysis of the fiscal policies sim 5.3. The estimation of the degree of business cycles synchronization between the new member states and the euro area 5.4. The estimation of the importance of the determining factors for the business cycles synchronization FINAL REMARKS
APPENDICES
SELECTIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY
GENERAL OVERVIEW
The relation between the economic integration and the monetary integration represents a subject of permanent interest for the economists of the European Union, given the aspirations of further integration of the European continent. The topic became even more important in the context of the present crisis, when the incertitude regarding the best solutions to make euro work further on have brought into discussion once again one of the questions of the beginning of the Economic and Monetary Union. This question is related to the risks implied by the early adhesion to the union of insufficiently prepared states, such as Greece. The Ph D theses entitled „The Report between the Economic Integration and the Monetary Integration” has as an objective the analysis of the challenges for Romania in the perspective of the euro adoption, starting with the theorization of the notions, the analysis of the experiences already accumulated at the European level and continuing with the a concrete diagnosis of the factors to which Romania should pay particular attention for a monetary union with the euro zone to work properly. The paper deals with the relevant aspects for Romania to meet its integration objectives, from an European-wide development strategies perspectives, such as the Europe 2020 Strategy, and of the recent commitments, such as the Euro Plus Pact. Besides the analysis of the nominal and real convergence process, the new challenges concerning the monetary policy in times of crises are approached. The business cycle synchronization between Romania and the euro zone is also diagnosed as a „meta-condition” of the creation of a monetary area between the two entities. The professional experience that I gained within the European Central Bank between September 2007 and December 2009 has proved of real importance for the work documentation and the conclusions of the paper. As concerns the analysis of the synchronization degree of the Romanian business cycle with the one of the euro zone, the economic literature presents basically two weaknesses. In general, the studies regarding our country are fewer compared to those regarding other new member states, including those of the European Commission, mostly due to the lack of data. Secondly, the studies performed until now consist only in a strict analysis of the cycles’ synchronization and of the evolution of the classic determining factors, i.e. the openness degree of the economy, the bilateral trade intensity and the similarity of the This paper extends the analysis framework by testing the importance of three new factors, such as the exchange rate stability and the policy similarity (i.e. of the monetary and fiscal policies between the countries under review, i.e. Romania and the euro area). It also targets o prioritization of the factors by their importance. Given the fact the economic theory does not set a sign for the impact of the political similarity for the cycles synchronization, the analysis performed tried to bring some light on the issue. Given the topic of the PhD thesis, i.e. the relation between the economic and the monetary integration, we have also checked whether the adhesion to the European Union has created or accentuated the condition for a monetary union to work between Romania and the euro zone. From this perspective, we’ve tested the sign of the evolution between determinative factors from the pre-accession to the post-accession period, the way the synchronization degree has varied, as well as the changes to the importance of the determinative factors from one period to the other. For the study to be complete, the analysis concerning both the determinative factors (in their extended version) and the cycles’ synchronization with the euro zone was extended to the other seven candidates to the euro currency (incl. Estonia, who adopted the euro in SUMMARY OF THE MAIN PARTS AND CONCLUSIONS OF THE PhD
The research was structured in five chapters. The first chapter deals with the development of the economic theories concerning
the types and the conditions of the economic integration and of the monetary integration, by focusing both on the arguments and the counterarguments formulated in their respect. The presentation of the theoretical aspects is achieved in their logical evolutionary logic in parallel with the presentation of the defining steps of the integration process at an European level. The theoretical notions were applied when analyzing the European Economic and Monetary Union from the perspective of the Optimum Currency Areas Theory. One of the results is the fact that the conditions for the creation of an Optimum Currency Area have mostly deteriorated with the adhesion of the new comers, especially from the point of view of the workforce mobility, given the protectionist measures implemented by some countries of the euro zone against the work force of the Central and East European countries. second chapter, having as a key element the convergence analysis, starts from
the detailed analysis of the convergence process within The European Union and the euro zone. The second part is dedicated to the analysis of the risks in terms of real convergence concerning the main strategies for the participation to the Exchange Rate Mechanism II and for the euro adoption. The growth determinants are analyzed, the possible growth examples for Romania as well as the challenges give by the crisis. concerning the implementation of the Europe 2020 Strategy in the 27 EU counties proved that Romania should pay special attention to increasing the employment degree for the population between 20 and 64 years, as well as to the increase of investments in research and development. Romania is on the 2nd position in EU in this respect. In this respect, Romania can learn from both the positive and the negative previous experiences in the EU, such as those of Ireland, Spain and Greece. The key success factors are: the development of the industry and especially the one incorporating a high degree of technological progress, the investment in research, the development of the infrastructure and, mainly, the creation and implementation of a long term strategy to ensure the work force proficiency. The lack of a strategy and the exclusive utilization of some temporary development opportunities may bring the failure of the convergence process. In Romania, the increase of the research expenses oriented towards the productive fields should be of high priority given the fact that the research and development expenses have represented only 0,47% of GDP in 2009, compaired to 2,01% the EU 27 average. As concerns the relation between nominal and the real convergence, the candidates for the euro deal with the risk of failing to comply with the inflation criteria beyaond the Balassa- Samuelson effect given the masive foreign capital inflows. These may determine the increase of inflation both through the increase of the Balassa-Samuelson effect and the direct feeding third chapter I have analysed the functioning of the schocks’ adjustment
mechanisms within the EMU, both provided by the market and the political framework of the union. The chapter offers a detailed analysis of the limitation and the connections existing within the policy framework. The second part of the chapter offers a detailed analysis of the EU fiscal positions also from a perspective of the application of the political adjustment instruments, of the economic growth and fiscal consolidation priorities and of the new challenges brought by the debt crises. The chapter also analysis the policy mix in the EMU. Chapter IV is dedicated to the detailed analysis of the preparation degree of Romania
for the euro adoption, both from the perspectives of the Maastricht criteria and the real convergence, with a focus on the lastest challenges in this respect, given the participation in Besides the diagnosis of the present status concerning the respect of the nominal convergence criteria, the first part of the chapter offers a detailed analysis of the new challenges addressed to the inflation targeting in the present crisis. The development of the financial crises have brought into attention a question of the crisis from the beginning of the 2000, i.e. a possible weakness of the inflation targeting strategy that would consist in the overlook of the financial stability, given the fact that the assets prices are not among the target variables. The analysis has proved that the first best solution for Romania is still the inflation targeting backed up by an adequate prudential policy. In this respect, a useful tool would be the further development of the assets prices analysis and monitoring framework. As concerns the respect of the budget deficit and the pubic debt criteria, Romania’s participation in the Euro Plus Pact and its commitment to introduce in the nation legislation the numerical rule concerning the budget deficit limit according to the Maastricht criteria proves Romania’s will to adopt the euro currency in the shortest possible delay. To test the real convergence among the new member states I have used as an indicator the productivity, as an expression of the long term growth and as a determining factor of competitiveness, as an indicator monitored by Europe 2020 Strategy and the Euro Plus Pact. The analysis of the sigma convergence and of the beta absolute and conditioned convergence using data series between 2000 and 2010 have concluded on the following results: ƒ The existence of an increasing trend of divergence among the new member states, accentuated once Romania was included in the panel; ƒ Lack of absolute convergence regardless the inclusion of Romania in the panel; ƒ The existence of the beta conditional convergence, the convergence speed being higher once Romania was included in the panel. The main factors determining the productivity increase are the raw fix capital formation and the increase in the development and research expenses. The results confirm the Verdoorn law according to which the GDP increase determines an increase in the productivity. In our case a 1% increase of GDP determines a 0,53% increase in the productivity in the convergence group of the new member states including Romania. The foreign direct investments have a negative, but insignificant impact on productivity, that could prove the fact that they haven’t sustained the development of the productive capacities. I have also tested the importance for the increase of productivity of the main Europe 2020 Strategy and Euro Plus Pact indicators, i.e. the unemployment rate among young people, human resources in science and technology, graduates of the faculty level and the number of graduates in science and technology. The results have shown that the human resources and number o graduates in science and technology had a positive impact on productivity, while the number of faculty graduates have a negative influence (negative coefficients, statistically significant). This could prove difference among the group concerning their professional skill, with a direct impact on the states’ competitiveness. In chapter V, for the calculus concerning the cycles synchronization I have used as an
indicator the industrial production index. For the extraction of the trend component I have used the Hodrick-Prescott filter and for the estimation of the synchronization degree I have used both parametrical and nonparametric methods, e.g. Pearson linear correlation coefficient and Spearman and Kendall ranks’ correlation coefficients. The synchronization degree of the other new member states with the euro area was calculated using the industrial production index and with each member state of the euro zone The analysis of the evolution of determinating factors of synchronization have shown ƒ As concerns the degree of trade integration with euro zone, Romania presents a significantly higher degree with the euro zone compared to Bulgaria and the baltic states, and over two times smaller that that of the Czech Republic and Hungary and over three times smaller that the one of Poland. Against the euro zone member states, Romania presents a high trade integration degree with Italy, Greece and ƒ As concerns testing the specialization theory hypothesis, in the case of Romania the increase in trade integration was achieved in parallel with the intensification of the intra-industry relations. Thus, in the case of Romania, a monetary integration with the euro area may lead to the increase of the shocks similarity through the intensification of the trade relations, Romania being a case eligible for the endogeneity theory. Opposite results have been obtained for the Czech Republic ƒ Romania positioned itself on the last place among the countries analyzed as concerns the openness of the economy and the economic structure similarity with ƒ Despite a high divergence degree with the euro zone as concerns the monetary policy similarity, after entering the EU Romania has made considerable progresses as concerns the interest rates’ convergence towards those of the euro zone; ƒ Regarding the fiscal policy similarity, Romania presents a higher degree compared The estimation of the economic cycle using the industrial production index has illustrated the Romanian cycle with a reduced volatility compared to the one of the euro zone, but characterized by higher amplitudes. Compared to Romania, the other new member states presents higher volatility and higher amplitudes (especially Poland, the Czech Republic and Estonia). In general, the cyclical evolution of the other member states follow Romania and the euro zone as concerns the 2007-2008 boom and the recession following it. Nevertheless, Poland and the Czech Republic may be considered particular cases, given the fact that they have recorded remarkable increases over the potential level in 2002 and the second half of As concerns Romania’s synchronization degree with the euro zone, all three methods illustrate a high synchronization degree and its increase after entering the EU. The results differ in the ranks allocated to Romania, the nonlinear coefficients positioning our country on ƒ The Pearson coefficient positions Romania on the sixth rank among the eight in the ƒ The Spearman and Kendall coefficients position Romania on the third rank. As an overview of the results concerning the panel, the states with the most synchronized economies with the one of the euro zone, acording to the linear correlation are the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary and Latvia, these results being confirmed by the nonlinear analysis that positon the Czech Republic and Hungary among the most synchronized economies. These results correspond to those of the determining factors’ analysis, these states havinfg a high structural similarity degree with the euro zone (Hungary, Estonia, Latvia) and strong commercial relations with it (the Czech Republic and Hungary). The results of the three methods allow the following conclusions: ƒ The Czech Republic presents the highest sychronization degree with the euro zone, presenting increasements of the correlation from one subperiod to the other of around 30%; ƒ All the baltic states have reoriented the economic cycle from the Russian influence to the one of the euro zone, Estonia and Latvia having presently some of the most correlated economies with the euro zone. Estonia has increased its correlation degree from 4,9% in the beginning of 2000 to 93,9% in the period 2007-2010 (occupying the second rank according to the linear correlation). As concerns Latvia, one should notice that, just like in the case of Hungary in fact, it experienced a diminishement of the synchronization imediatly after entering the EU. The fast recovery of the situation after 2007 brough both countries in the end on a better position than Poland, that has alway presented a high correlation with the ƒ Bulgaria had a slighly better position than Romania based on the linear correlation, but it occupied an obvious inferior position (rank 7) by the estimation of the nonparametric As concerns the importance of the determining factors for ensuring the business cycles synchronization, the regression for the period 2000-2010 did not illustrate a significant importance of the traditional determining factors. The explanatory capacity of the variables has increased once the exchange rate volatility and the policy similarities were included in the control variables. The exchange rate is the main factor that increased the explanatory capacity of the variables for the period 2000-2010, as well as for 2000-2002. In the period 2003-2006, when The adhesion Treaty was signed up and the capital account was liberalized, the the interest rate convergence was included among the most important determining factors along with the exchange rate volatility and the traditional factors. The results of 2000-2010 illustrate a positive correlation between the the polisies similarity degree and the business cycles synchronization. Joining the EU has modified the hierarchy of the determinating factors by their importance, the tradeand structural integration becoming the main channel of the synchronization. This was due both to the increase of the integration afeter the adhesion, and to the crisis that made the external schocks qualify their transmission channel (the bilateral trade) among the main determinating factors. As a conclusion, the increase in some cases of the explanatory power once the exchange rate and the policies similarity were taken into account, qualify these factors among the determining the elements that should be considered when analyzing the synchronization degree, along with the traditional factors dedicated by the literature in this field. The countries candidating for the euro adoption should thus pay them the proper attention. In the case of Romania, the exchange rate has shown to have a particular importance. As concerns the impact of joining the EU, on the monetary integration conditions, the research has proved not only the favorable evolution of the determining factors, but also a change in their

Source: http://www.ince.ro/IvanescuLauraCristinarezumateng.pdf